You Don’t Have to Like Luka Dončić (I Don’t Always), But You Better Fear Him
Updated: 14 hours ago
On our most recent episode of The Best of Seven Podcast, I might have strongly made my feelings known about watching Luka Dončić play basketball. Let’s just say they weren’t exactly warm and fuzzy.
I believe my exact words were “I hate watching him play at this point.”
Looking back, I was quite emphatically hyperbolic. I was also not far removed from an emotional Golden State Warriors opening day drubbing at the hands of Dončić's Los Angeles Lakers, a game where I watched Warriors rookie Yaxel Lendeborg receive a technical for jawing at Dončić , only for Luka to hit a half-court buzzer-beater in Lendeborg's face to end the first half and proceed to walk the young rook down, pointing and yelling what I can only assume was immense praise and words of encouragement for the Warriors forward to ponder. (...Sarcasm)
But staying on theme, nothing about Luka’s play has ever made me want to change the channel. When he first debuted as a 19-year-old and throughout the ensuing 4-5 years, I’d have gone as far as to call myself a Luka Dončić fan. Sure, like every player, he’d argue a call and engage in the occasional “foul-baiting” tactic. But no more than any other star and multiple-time All-NBA player. Something in the last 2-3 years drastically shifted though, in my opinion. And that’s exactly what this is, my opinion.
The arguing felt like it was every play. It felt like so often I watched his Mavericks, then Lakers teammates, sprinting back on defense while Dončić jogged back focused on making his grievances known to the nearest referee he could find, or sometimes worse, not even making it past half court. It also felt like, as his body consistently felt the effects of a litany of dings and bumps, he really hunted for fouls at times, driving without real intent to score and pump-faking from the perimeter and hoping his defender would take the bait and lurch themself into him.
Despite these feelings growing in me, I’ll never deny his greatness. He’s truly one of the greatest offensive players I’ve ever witnessed. A 6’8” savant who sees pieces on the chessboard with laser-like precision, with the size, skill, and passing chops to evade double teams, pass over and around them, while delivering dimes that truly make you question what you just witnessed. And oh yeah, he also has range out to the logo, a rhythm and change of pace that would make the best dancer lose the beat, the strength of a bull, and every possible shot in the bag you could think of.
So far this season, all those skills and basketball understanding have come together on a whole other level for Dončić. Through his nine games played this season, he’s averaging a cool 40 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists, and making 42% of his three-pointers (which would be by far a career best) on just under fourteen three-point attempts per game (13.8). Yes, you read that right...
FOURTEEN.
If the season were to end today, Luka’s 40.1 PPG would be the third most ever in a single season, behind two Wilt Chamberlain seasons. His 13.8 3PA would be the most in NBA history, with James Harden’s 13.2 per game in 2018-19 being the only other season a player attempted 13 or more threes per game. Not even Stephen Curry, whose 9.43 career three-point attempts per game top the all-time list, has ever attempted 13+ threes a game (Curry’s career high in 3PA is 12.7 in the 2020-21 season).
Luka has always been a good but not great three-point shooter percentage-wise. He’s a 35% career three-point marksman, but much like James Harden during his prime years with the Houston Rockets, he shoots them at such a high volume, his step-back is so deadly, and he can at times get hotter than Smaug breathing fire in The Hobbit (I hadn’t gotten truly nerdy with you guys yet. It was only a matter of time), he still brings immense value as an outside threat.
So what’s different this year?
Well, a few things. For one, per NBA.com’s stats and information, his pull-up three-point frequency (the percentage of his overall shots that come off the dribble) is a career-high 39.4%, and his 39.1% accuracy on such shots is a career high as well. But I think the biggest difference is his catch-and-shoot three-point numbers. He’s never shot a ton of them, which is hardly surprising for a player with the highest career usage rate in NBA history (35.9%). But 15% of his field-goal attempts are now catch-and-shoot threes, a career high (up from 12.5% last season), and he’s making them at a 45.5% clip. This would blow his career-high percentage on such shots out of the water like Chief Brody did to ole Bruce the shark in the 1970s classic Jaws.
I think the ascension and pairing with Austin Reaves has also freed Dončić up. Reaves, a sniper in his own right, shares a lot of Luka’s qualities. He’s a fantastic on-ball scorer and playmaker, and his ability to break down defenses and get into the lane sets up tons of open kickouts to teammates. Add in a collection of Lakers players who know when to make the extra pass, and it’s not surprising Luka is shooting, and making, more threes than ever.
I won’t, nor can I, tell you the foul grifting has completely stopped. He leads the league in free-throw attempts per game (11.3), the most of his career, and his free-throw rate (number of free throws attempted per field goal made) would be the second highest of his career. But so much of it is just his immense skill. When he gets you on his back or his hip, you're dead, as he’s so good at stopping on a dime and rising up as you go through him. He's got an arsenal of head fakes, step-throughs, and fade-aways where he makes you make contact. It’s an impossible task. Oh yeah, he’s also shooting 87% from the charity stripe, another career high.
His defense had even been the best I’d seen of his career, but it does seem to have slipped a bit over the past few games, as the Lakers' defense has taken a bit of a hit, dropping to 20th in the league in defensive rating per Basketball Reference (Dunks&Threes which is probably a better rating system does have them at 13th on defense for what it’s worth. It also has Luka at a 1.2 Defensive EPM, good for the 82nd percentile in the NBA. My eyes might disagree at times, but the data is the data.) He and the Lakers do need to be better on that end if they want to maintain their hot start (9-2 record to start the season) and cement themselves as true title contenders.
I do worry a little that he’s being relied upon too much. I know the Lakers aren’t exactly overflowing with on-ball shot creators past Luka and Reaves, but Luka’s 40.7% usage rate would rank second in a single season all time, trailing only Russell Westbrook's 41.65% during the 2016-17 season. Of the top 25 single-season usage rates in NBA history, not a single one went on to win an NBA title. In fact, you have to go all the way down to No. 49 on that list, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in 2024-25, before you find a player who won a title that season. And his 34.81% that year pales in comparison to the load Luka is carrying this season. They need to find a way to lighten his load, even if slightly.
Regardless, he’s an offensive supercomputer, taking and making more threes than ever. He’s mastered the ability to draw contact and get to the free-throw line. He continues to draw two and three defenders and deliver breathtaking passes for easy buckets. Everything revolves around him, every defense catered to stopping him, and yet most nights it truly feels like you’ve got a better chance of winning the lottery.
He is in the simplest terms, transcendent.
On opening night and throughout the past few years, I’ve often let issues with his behavior and on-court antics, which you can think are justified or not, I really don’t care, cause me to lose sight of his transcendence. But whether you like him or not, so far this season he’s in the best shape since his rookie year, maybe even ever, and he’s playing at a level we’ve seen only from the very best to ever do it, the immortals, untouchables. And the league should be very, very afraid.
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